Five Market Theories You Should Know About
When it comes to investing, there are several theories on what makes markets tick and what a given market move indicates. The two major Wall Street factions are divided along theoretical lines: those who believe in the efficient market theory and those who believe the market can be defeated. Although this is a basic distinction, other theories attempt to explain and affect the market, as well as investment behaviour. If you are interested in investing or trading, then consider Zebu to get started, as a reputed share broker company we offer lowest brokerage options and a seamless online trading platform to help you with your investment journey. 1. Theorem of Efficient Markets The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) continues to be a point of contention. According to the EMH, the market price of a stock integrates all available information about that stock. This signifies that the stock is priced appropriately until a future event alters the price. Given the uncertainty of the future, a devotee of EMH is significantly better suited to owning a diverse range of companies and gaining from the market's overall increase. You either believe in it and employ passive, wide market investment strategies, or you dislike it and concentrate on stocks with high growth potential, undervalued assets, and so on. Those who oppose EMH refer to Warren Buffett and other investors who have repeatedly outperformed the market by identifying irrational pricing inside the broader market. 2. The Fifty-Percent Rule The fifty-per cent principle predicts that an observed trend will experience a price correction equal to about half to two-thirds of the change in price before continuing. This suggests that if a stock has been rising and gained 20%, it will lose 10% before continuing to increase. This is an extreme example, as this rule is frequently used for the short-term trends on which the technical analysts and traders trade. This correction is considered to be a normal component of the trend, as it is typically triggered by fearful investors taking profits early in order to prevent being caught in a true trend reversal later on. If the correction is greater than 50% of the price change, it is interpreted as a sign that the trend has failed and the reverse has occurred early. 3. The Greater Fool Hypothesis According to the greater fool theory, investing is profitable as long as there is a greater fool than yourself willing to purchase the investment at a higher price. This means that you can profit from an overpriced stock as long as another party is prepared to pay a premium to acquire it from you. As the market for any investment overheats, you eventually run out of fools. Investing on the basis of the larger fool theory entails disregarding valuations, earnings reports, and all other data. Ignoring data is just as risky as paying too much attention to it, and hence those who believe in the greater fool hypothesis may find themselves on the losing end of a market correction. 4. The Theory of Odd Lot The odd lot hypothesis uses the sale of odd lots — small blocks of shares held by individual investors – to calculate the best time to invest in a firm. When small investors sell out, investors use the odd-lot theory buy-in. The underlying idea is that small investors are frequently incorrect. The odd lot theory is a contrarian technique based on a deceptively simple sort of technical analysis - odd-lot sales measurement. How successful an investor or trader is in applying the theory is highly dependent on whether he investigates the fundamentals of the firms the theory suggests or simply buys blindly. 5. Prospect Theory Prospect theory is often referred to as loss aversion theory. According to prospect theory, people's views of gain and loss are distorted. That is, people are more fearful of loss than of gain. When people are presented with two contrasting prospects, they will choose the one that they believe has a lower probability of ending in a loss over the one that promises the most gains. For instance, if you offer a person two investments, one that has returned 5% each year and another that has returned 12%, lost 2.5 per cent, and returned 6% in the same years, the person will choose the 5% investment because he places an irrational premium on the single loss while ignoring the larger gains. Both alternatives in the previous example generate a net total return after three years. As a reputed share broker company we offer lowest brokerage options and a seamless online trading platform to help you with your investment journey. Contact Zebu to know more on how to get started on your share market investment journey.